World population has reached a transition point: The rapid growth of the second half of the 20th century has slowed. But factors such as continuously improving mortality and slower- than-expected declines in birth rates guarantee continued growth for decades. The questions remain: how fast, how much, and where?

 

The population size of the world’s more developed countries has essentially peaked. What little growth remains will mostly come from immigration from less developed countries. A number of more developed countries are likely to decline in size and see the proportion of their elderly populations rise to unprecedented levels. The outlook for less developed countries is quite different. The increase in world population from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 6.1 billion in 2000 was almost entirely due to population growth in those countries. The 20th-century population “explosion” was a direct result of the rapid decline in mortality rates in less developed countries.

The International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of  Populations and their Health (INDEPTH), the Importance of  Core Support

by Samson Kinyanjui and Ian M. Timæus
Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida), 2010

INDEPTH is a network of 37 health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) sites based in the developing world that was set up by its members to raise their research
productivity by sharing experience and skills and mounting multi-site research projects. This report suggests some changes to INDEPTH’s structures and working procedures that should enable it to function more efficiently. It also identifies some challenges that the Network should address in order to enhance its achievements and further increase its scientific and policy impact.

This paper develops a link between four central components of the demographic transition: survival rates; fertility decisions; altruistic intergenerational transfers from workers toward their parents; and economic growth. An increase in child survival is found to reduce the fertility rate and altruistic transfers, and thereby increase the savings rate and the productivity growth rate. The analysis illustrates the key role of child health in the demographic transition.
Author:    Jorgensen, Ole Hagen;

Facilitating Data Informed Decision Making

 

In areas of the world where the need for health services is great and resources are limited, policy and program decisions must lead to the best possible health outcomes. The Framework for Linking Data with action assists in the decision-making process by strengthening the links between data and decisions.

 

The Population Reference Bureau's 2010 World Population Data Sheet and its summary report offer detailed information on 19 population, health, and environment indicators for more than 200 countries. The 2010 World Population Data Sheet shows the contrasts between developing and developed countries.

Other Highlights From the 2010 World Population Data Sheet:

    * The worldwide recession appears to have caused declines in birth rates in some developed countries, such as Spain and the United States; and slowed down increases where birth rates had begun to rise, such as in Norway and Russia.
    * Africa's population is projected to double to 2 billion by 2050, although this growth could be greater if birth rates do not decrease faster than currently. Africa's total fertility rate is 4.7 children per woman.
    * Worldwide, 40 percent of the population, or more than 2.7 billion people, lack access to an adequate sanitation facility. The bulk of the underserved live in rural areas of developing countries. Only 40 percent of people in rural areas in these countries have access to sanitation.
    * As the U.S. population ages, spending on entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare will rise sharply. Total spending on these two programs is projected to increase from today's level of 8.4 percent of GDP to 12.5 percent in 2030.